Ukusukela ngo-2020, ichatshazelwa kukukhula kwemfuno yaphesheya kweelwandle, ukwehla kwezinga lokuguqulwa kweenqanawa, ukuxinana kwamazibuko, izinto zothutho kunye nezinye izinto, imithwalo yempahla yolwandle yamazwe aphesheya iye yanda, kwaye imakethi “ayilingani”.Ukusukela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, i-container yezizwe ngezizwe yothutho elwandle ukusukela kumothuko omkhulu kunye nolungiso oluthile.Idatha evela eShailand Shipping Exchange ibonise ukuba ngoNovemba 18, 2022, i-container ye-container ye-Shanghai yokuthumela ngaphandle ivaliwe kwii-1306.84 amanqaku, iqhubeka nokuhla ukusuka kwikota yesithathu.Kwikota yesithathu, njengencopho yesiqhelo yexesha lokurhweba ngenqanawa kwihlabathi jikelele, amaxabiso okuthumela ngenqanawa awazange abonise ukukhula okuphezulu, kodwa abonise ukwehla okubukhali.Ziziphi izizathu ezibangela oku, kwaye ubona njani iintsingiselo zemarike kwixesha elizayo?

Ukuhla kwemfuno kuchaphazela ukulindela
Okwangoku, ukukhula kwe-GDP kuqoqosho oluphambili lwehlabathi kuye kwacotha kakhulu, kwaye idola yaseMelika inyuse izinga lenzala ngokukhawuleza, nto leyo ebangela ukuqina koqoqosho lwehlabathi.Xa kudityaniswe neempembelelo zobhubhani we-COVID-19 kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso aphezulu, ukukhula kweemfuno zangaphandle kuye kwacotha kwaye kwaqalisa ukuncipha.Ngaxeshanye, imingeni kuhlumo loqoqosho lwasekhaya iye yanda.Ukukhula okulindelweyo kokudodobala koqoqosho lwehlabathi kubeka uxinzelelo kurhwebo lwehlabathi kunye nemfuno yabathengi.
Ukususela kumbono wesakhiwo semveliso, ukususela ngo-2020, izinto zokuthintela ubhubhane ezimelwe yilaphu, iziyobisi kunye nezixhobo zonyango kunye "noqoqosho lwasekhaya" olumelwe yifenitshala, izixhobo zasekhaya, iimveliso ze-elektroniki kunye nezixhobo zokuzonwabisa zibone ukukhula kokusetyenziswa ngokukhawuleza.Idityaniswe neempawu zeempahla zabathengi "zoqoqosho lwasekhaya", ezifana nexabiso eliphantsi, umthamo omkhulu kunye nomthamo omkhulu wesikhongozeli, izinga lokukhula kokuthunyelwa kweekhonteyina kumazwe angaphandle lifikelele kwinqanaba elitsha eliphezulu.
Ngenxa yotshintsho kwimo engqongileyo yangaphandle, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe iimpahla zokuvalelwa kunye neemveliso "zoqoqosho lwasekhaya" kwehlile ukusukela ngo-2022. Ukusukela ngoJulayi, imeko yokukhula kwexabiso lokuthumela ngaphandle kwesikhongozeli kunye nomthamo wokuthumela ngaphandle ubuye umva.
Ngokwembono yoluhlu lweempahla eYurophu nase-United States, abathengi abakhulu behlabathi, abathengisi kunye nabavelisi baye bahlangabezana nenkqubo ukusuka ekuboneleleni okunqongopheleyo, ukukrokrela kwempahla kwihlabathi jikelele, iimpahla ezisendleleni eya kuluhlu oluphezulu kwisithuba nje esingaphezu kweminyaka emibini.EUnited States, umzekelo, abanye abathengisi abakhulu abanje ngeWal-Mart, Best Buy kunye neThagethi baneengxaki ezinzima zoluhlu lwempahla, ngakumbi kwiTVS, izixhobo zasekhitshini, ifenitshala kunye nempahla."I-inventory ephezulu, enzima ukuyithengisa" ibe yingxaki eqhelekileyo kubathengisi baseYurophu nase-US, kwaye olu tshintsho lunciphisa inkuthazo yokungenisa abathengi, abathengisi kunye nabavelisi.
Ngokumalunga nokuthunyelwa kwempahla kumazwe angaphandle, ukusuka kowama-2020 ukuya kowama-2021, okuchatshazelwa kukusasazeka kobhubhane kwihlabathi jikelele kunye nothintelo nolawulo olujolisiweyo nolusebenzayo lwase-China, ukuthunyelwa kwe-China kumazwe angaphandle kubonelele ngenkxaso ebalulekileyo yokubuyisela uqoqosho kuwo onke amazwe.Isabelo se-China sempahla ethunyelwa kumazwe angaphandle sisuka kwi-13% ngowama-2019 saya kutsho kwi-15% ekupheleni kuka-2021. Ukusukela ngo-2022, umthamo owawubanjwe ngaphambili e-United States, eJamani, eJapan, kuMzantsi Korea nakuMzantsi-mpuma we-Asia uye wachacha ngokukhawuleza.Xa kudityaniswe nefuthe “lokuqhawuka” kwamanye amashishini, isabelo semveliso yaseTshayina yokuthumela ngaphandle sele iqalile ukuhla, nto leyo echaphazela ngokungangqalanga ukukhula kwemfuno yorhwebo lwamakhonteyina eTshayina.

Umthamo osebenzayo ukhutshwa ngelixa imfuno iyancipha, ukuhanjiswa kolwandle kuyanda.
Njengenkokeli yesantya esiphezulu sothutho lwenqanawa kwihlabathi liphela, indlela yeFar East-America ikwayindawo ebalulekileyo “yokuthintela” indlela yokuthumela iikhonteyina zehlabathi.Ngenxa yokunyuka kwemfuno yase-US ukusuka ngo-2020 ukuya ku-2021, ukulibaziseka kokuphuculwa kweziseko zezibuko kunye nokungabikho kobungakanani beenqanawa ezifanelekileyo, amazibuko ase-US afumene ingxinano enkulu.
Umzekelo, iinqanawa zeenqanawa kwiPort of Los Angeles zakhe zachitha umndilili weentsuku ezili-10 zokukhwela, kwaye ezinye zade zafola ngaphezulu kweentsuku ezingama-30 zizodwa.Kwangaxeshanye, ukunyuka kwamazinga omthwalo kunye nemfuno eyomeleleyo yatsala inani elikhulu leenqanawa kunye neebhokisi ezisuka kwezinye iindlela ukuya kule ndlela, ethe ngokungangqalanga yaqinisa unikezelo kunye nemfuno yoxinzelelo lwezinye iindlela, kanye okubangela ukungalingani “kwesikhongozeli esinye kunzima. ukufumana” kunye “nendlwana enye kunzima ukuyifumana”.
Njengoko imfuno iye yacotha kwaye iimpendulo zezibuko ziye zaba ngabom, zenzululwazi kunye nocwangco, ukuxinana kumazibuko aphesheya kuye kwaphucuka kakhulu.Iindlela zesikhongozeli sehlabathi ziye zabuyela ngokuthe ngcembe kuyilo lwangaphambili, kwaye inani elikhulu lezikhongozeli ezingenanto zaphesheya zibuyile, nto leyo eyenza kube nzima ukubuyela kwinto yangaphambili “yesikhongozeli esinye kunzima ukusifumana” kwaye “isikhongozeli esinye kunzima ukusifumana”.
Ngokuphucuka kokungalingani phakathi konikezelo kunye nemfuno kwiindlela ezinkulu, izinga lokufika ngexesha kweenqanawa kwiinkampani ezinkulu zehlabathi zokuthutha nazo sele ziqalisile ukunyuka ngokuthe chu, kwaye nomthamo osebenzayo wokuthumela iinqanawa ukhululwe ngokuqhubekayo.Ukususela ngoMatshi ukuya kuJuni ka-2022, iinkampani ezinkulu ze-liner zilawula malunga neepesenti ezili-10 zomthamo wazo ongasebenziyo ngenxa yokuhla ngokukhawuleza komthwalo wemizila emikhulu, kodwa azizange ziyeke ukuhla okuqhubekayo kumaxabiso omthwalo.
Kwangaxeshanye, amacebo okukhuphisana amashishini enqanawa nawo aqala ukwahluka.Amanye amashishini aqala ukomeleza utyalo-mali lweziseko ezingundoqo elunxwemeni, ukufumana ezinye ii-brokers kunye neenkampani zolungiselelo, ukukhawulezisa uhlaziyo lwedijithali;Amanye amashishini aqinisa ukuguqulwa kwemikhumbi yamandla amatsha, ukuhlola iinqanawa zamandla amatsha anikwe amandla e-LNG fuel, methanol kunye namandla ombane.Ezinye iinkampani ziqhubekile nokwandisa iiodolo zeenqanawa ezintsha.
Ukuchatshazelwa lutshintsho lwamva nje lwesakhiwo kwimarike, ukunqongophala kokuzithemba kuyaqhubeka ukusasazeka, kwaye izinga lokuthuthwa kwebhokisi lehlabathi liye lehla ngokukhawuleza, kwaye imarike yendawo iye yawa ngaphezulu kwama-80% kwincopho yayo xa ithelekiswa nencopho.Abathwali, abathuthi bempahla kunye nabanini bempahla kumdlalo wokwandisa amandla.Indawo eyomeleleyo yomthwali iyaqala ukucinezela imida yenzuzo yabadluliseli.Kwangaxeshanye, ixabiso lendawo kunye nexabiso lokuhamba ixesha elide kwezinye iindlela eziphambili zijikisiwe.Amanye amashishini enze isindululo sokufuna ukubonisana ngokutsha ngexabiso elihamba ixesha elide, elinokukhokelela ekwaphulweni kwekhontrakthi yezothutho.Nangona kunjalo, njengesivumelwano esijolise kwimarike, akukho lula ukusiguqula isivumelwano, kwaye sijongene nomngcipheko omkhulu wembuyekezo.

Kuthekani ngeentsingiselo zexabiso elizayo
Ukusuka kwimeko yangoku, isikhongozeli sexesha elizayo sempahla yolwandle siyehla okanye sicuthe.
Ngokwembono yemfuno, ngenxa yokuqiniswa kokusetyenziswa kwemali kwihlabathi okubangelwa kukunyuka kwesantya senzala yedola yaseMelika, ukwehla kwemfuno yabathengi kunye nenkcitho ebangelwe kukunyuka kwamaxabiso aphezulu eYurophu nase-United States, uluhlu lwempahla zorhwebo oluphezulu kunye nokuncipha kwexabiso lentengo. imfuno yokungenisa kumazwe angaphandle eYurophu nase-United States kunye nezinye izinto ezimbi, imfuno yothutho lweekhonteyina inokuqhubeka nokudakumba.Nangona kunjalo, ukuthotywa kwamva nje kwesalathiso soLwazi lwabathengi base-US kunye nokufunyanwa kwezinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle zaseTshayina ezifana nezixhobo ezincinci zasekhaya kunokunciphisa ukuhla kwemfuno.
Ukusuka kwimbono yokubonelela, ukuxinana kwamazibuko aphesheya kuya kuncitshiswa ngakumbi, ukusebenza kakuhle kweenqanawa kulindeleke ukuba kuphuculwe ngakumbi, kunye nesantya sokuhanjiswa komthamo wenqanawa kwikota yesine sinokukhawuleziswa, ngoko ke imakethi ijongene nemeko enkulu. uxinzelelo olugqithisileyo.
Nangona kunjalo, okwangoku, iinkampani ezinkulu ze-liner ziqalisile ukwenza umjikelo omtsha wamanyathelo okunqunyanyiswa, kwaye ukukhula komthamo osebenzayo kwintengiso kuyalawuleka.Kwangaxeshanye, ungquzulwano lwaseRussia-Ukraine kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso ombane ehlabathi nako kuzise ukungaqiniseki okuninzi kwindlela yentengiso yexesha elizayo.Isigwebo sisonke, ikota yesine ishishini leekhonteyina lisekwinqanaba "leebb tide", ulindelo olunyukayo lusanqongophala ngenkxaso eyomeleleyo, ukuhambisa imithwalo ezantsi ngokubanzi, ukwehla okanye ukucutha.
Ngokombono weenkampani zokuthutha, kuyimfuneko ukwenza amalungiselelo aneleyo empembelelo ye "ebb tide" kwishishini leekhonteyina.Utyalo-mali ngeenqanawa lunokuba lulumke ngakumbi, luqonde ngcono ixabiso lenqanawa langoku kunye nempembelelo yomjikelo womthwalo wemarike, ukhethe amathuba angcono otyalo-mali;Kufuneka sinikele ingqalelo kutshintsho olutsha kwisivumelwano se-RCEP, urhwebo lwengingqi, ukuthumela ngenqanawa ngokukhawuleza kunye nekhonkco elibandayo ukuze sisondele ngakumbi kubanini bempahla kunye nokuphucula amandla ethu eenkonzo ezihlanganisiweyo zokubonelela ngenkonzo kunye neenzuzo zokukhuphisana.Ukuhambelana nendlela yangoku yokudityaniswa kwezixhobo zamazibuko, ukomeleza uphuhliso oluhlangeneyo namazibuko, nokukhuthaza uphuhliso olulungelelanisiweyo lwamasebe aphantsi naphakathi.Ngexesha elifanayo, ukwandisa ukuguqulwa kwedijithali kunye nokuphuculwa kweshishini kunye nokuphucula amandla okulawula iqonga.
Ngokombono wabathumeli, kufuneka sinikele ingqalelo ngokusondeleyo kutshintsho lwesakhiwo sokusetyenziswa phesheya kwaye sizame ukufumana imiyalelo engaphezulu yokuthumela ngaphandle.Siya kulawula ngokufanelekileyo iindleko zokunyuka kwezinto eziluhlaza, ukulawula ngokufanelekileyo iindleko zoluhlu lweemveliso ezigqityiweyo, ukukhuthaza ukuphuculwa kweemveliso ezithunyelwa ngaphandle kunye nokuveliswa kwezinto ezintsha zobuchwepheshe, kunye nokunyusa ixabiso elongezelelweyo lempahla ethunyelwa ngaphandle.Nika ingqalelo kwinkxaso yomgaqo-nkqubo wesizwe wokukhuthaza urhwebo lwangaphandle kunye nokudibanisa kwindlela yophuhliso lwe-e-commerce ewela umda.
Ngokwembono yomthumeli wempahla, kuyimfuneko ukulawula iindleko zenkunzi, ukuphucula isakhono senkonzo yolungiselelo lonke, kunye nokuthintela ingxaki yokuthengwa kwempahla enokuthi ibangelwe kukuqhawuka kwekhonkco lenkunzi.