Kutshanje, inkampani yengcebiso ye-Fitch - iBenchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI), iBenchmark Mineral Intelligence ikhuphe ingxelo yoqikelelo, i-2023-2027, umyinge wokukhula ngonyaka wemveliso yentsimbi yehlabathi kulindeleke ukuba ibe yi-2.3%, Kwiminyaka emihlanu edlulileyo (2017- 2022), isalathisi yaba -0.7%.Oku kuya kunceda ukukhulisa imveliso yentsimbi nge-372.8 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2027 xa kuthelekiswa no-2022, ingxelo yatsho.
Kwangaxeshanye, isantya sokuveliswa kwentsimbi yehlabathi siya kunyuka ngakumbi.
Ingxelo yabonisa ukuba ukunyuka kwe-iron ore kwihlabathi elizayo kuza kuvela ikakhulu eBrazil nase-Australia.Okwangoku, uVale utyhile isicwangciso esisebenzayo sokwandisa kwihlabathi langaphandle.Kwangaxeshanye, iBHP Billiton, iRio Tinto, iFMG nayo iceba ukutyala imali kwiiprojekthi ezintsha zokwandiswa.Imizekelo ibandakanya iBhulorho yentsimbi, elandelwa yiFMG, kunye neGudai Darri, elandelwa yiRio Tinto.
Ingxelo yathi kule minyaka mithathu ukuya kwemine izayo, imveliso yentsimbi yaseTshayina iza kwanda.Okwangoku, i-China izama ukunyusa umgangatho wokuzimela kwaye ngokuthe ngcembe iyancipha ekuxhomekeke kwimigodi yase-Australia.Uphuhliso olusebenzayo "lwesicwangciso sekona" lukhuthaze ukwanda kwemveliso yamashishini emigodi yaseTshayina, kwaye kwakhona kwakhawulezisa uphuhliso lwemigodi yaphesheya kweelwandle ziinkampani zaseTshayina ezifana neBaowu, njengeprojekthi yeXipo yaseChina iBaowu kunye neRio Tinto.Ingxelo ilindele ukuba iinkampani zaseTshayina zibeke phambili utyalo-mali kwimigodi yentsimbi yaphesheya kolwandle, njengomgodi omkhulu waseSimandou.
Ingxelo iphinda iqikelele ukuba ukusuka kwi-2027 ukuya kwi-2032, umyinge wokukhula ngonyaka wemveliso yentsimbi yehlabathi kulindeleke ukuba ibe yi-0.1%.Ngokwengxelo, ukucotha kokukhula kwemveliso kunokubangelwa kukuvalwa kwemigodi emincinci kunye namaxabiso aphantsi entsimbi ebangela ukuba abasebenzi-zimayini abakhulu banciphise utyalo-mali kwiiprojekthi ezintsha.
Ngokutsho kwengxelo, ukusuka kwi-2023 ukuya ku-2027, imveliso ye-iron ore yase-Australia iya kukhula nge-avareji yonyaka yokukhula kwe-0.2%.Kuxelwa ukuba ixabiso eliqhelekileyo lokuvelisa i-iron ore e-Australia yi-$ 30 / ton, iNtshona Afrika yi-$ 40 / ton ~ $ 50 / ton, kunye neChina yi-$ 90 / ton.Ngenxa yokuba i-Australia isezantsi kwijiko lexabiso lentsimbi yentsimbi yehlabathi, kulindeleke ukuba ibonelele ngesithinteli esisempilweni ngokuchasene nokuwa kwamaxabiso e-iron ore yehlabathi kwiminyaka embalwa ezayo.
Imveliso yentsimbi ekrwada yaseBrazil imiselwe ukuba iphinde iphinde iphinde iphinde ibuyele kwiminyaka embalwa ezayo.Ngokwengxelo, oku kungenxa yeendleko eziphantsi zemveliso kunye nokusebenza kommandla, oovimba beprojekthi abaneleyo, izibonelelo zoncedo, kunye nokwanda kokuthandwa kwabenzi bentsimbi baseTshayina.Ingxelo iqikelela ukuba ukususela ngo-2023 ukuya ku-2027, imveliso yentsimbi yaseBrazil iya kukhula kumyinge wokukhula ngonyaka we-3.4%, ukusuka kwi-56.1 yezigidi zeetoni ukuya kwi-482.9 yezigidi zeetoni ngonyaka.Nangona kunjalo, ekuhambeni kwexesha, izinga lokukhula kwemveliso yentsimbi eBrazil liya kuncipha, kwaye umyinge wokukhula ngonyaka kulindeleke ukuba ube yi-1.2% ukusuka kwi-2027 ukuya kwi-2032, kwaye imveliso iya kufikelela kwi-507.5 yezigidi zeetoni / ngonyaka kwi-2032.
Ukongeza, ingxelo iphinde ibonise ukuba i-Vale's Serra Norte imigodi ye-Gelado yensimbi iya kwandisa imveliso kulo nyaka;Iprojekthi i-N3 kulindeleke ukuba iqalise ngo-2024;Iprojekthi ye-S11D sele iyinyusile imveliso kwiikota ezintathu zokuqala zonyaka-mali, inceda ekukhuliseni imveliso yentsimbi nge-5.8 yeepesenti kunyaka nonyaka ukuya kwi-66.7m yeetoni, kunye neprojekthi kulindeleke ukuba yandise umthamo ngeetoni ezingama-30m ngonyaka. .