Abaqhubi kunye nabangaphakathi kwishishini ngokubanzi bakholelwa ukuba ekuqaleni kuka-2022, imarike yentsimbi "ubonelelo oluqinileyo kunye nemfuno ebuthathaka" ayisayi kutshintsha, nto leyo emisela ixabiso lemarike yentsimbi kulula ukuwa kunokunyuka, ukothuka."Amaxabiso entsimbi ekrwada kulindeleke ukuba ehle ngo-2022," iziko lophando lathi kudliwanondlebe, abaqhubi kunye nabangaphakathi kwishishini bathi kukho izizathu ezibini ezibangela "ubonelelo olunamandla kunye nemfuno ebuthathaka" ekuqaleni kuka-2022.
Okokuqala, ekuqaleni kwe-2022, ezinye iintsimbi zetsimbi ziya kuhlala zikwisimo sokugcinwa kunye nokuveliswa, okuya kuchaphazela ukukhululwa kwamandla.Ngokwezibalo ezingaphelelanga, okwangoku, i-iron yelizwe kunye ne-industry yensimbi ekugcinweni malunga nama-220 blast furnaces, echaphazela i-avareji yemveliso yemihla ngemihla malunga ne-663.700 yeetoni zentsimbi eshushu, iphantse iminyaka emi-3 ukuchaphazela inqanaba lokuvelisa intsimbi eshushu kakhulu.
Okwesibini, lungisa isakhiwo soshishino lwensimbi kwaye ukhuthaze ngenkuthalo uphuhliso oluphezulu lwamashishini ensimbi.Ekutshintsheni umthamo, iinkampani zetsimbi zinciphisa ubude benkqubo yokuvelisa isinyithi, imfuno yentsimbi yentsimbi iyaqhubeka ikhontrakthi.Kumxholo we "carbon peak" kunye "necarbon neutral", iBhunga likarhulumente likhuphe "iSicwangciso sokuSebenza seCarbon peak 2030" ngokucacileyo, sikhuthaza ukulungelelaniswa kwesakhiwo soshishino lwentsimbi kunye nentsimbi, sikhuthaza ngamandla ukubonakaliswa kokwenziwa kwentsimbi yesithando somlilo. isiseko, kwaye ukhuthaze yonke inkqubo yesithando sombane esilahliweyo.Ukongezelela, iimbono zeKomiti ePhakathi ye-CPC kunye neBhunga leSizwe malunga nokuNxilinisa iMfazwe yokuNgcolisa ifuna ukuguqulwa kwenkqubo ende ye-blast-converter steelmaking ibe yinkqubo emfutshane yokwenza i-steelmaking yombane.
Njengoko kunokubonwa kwisicwangciso sokutshintshwa kwentsimbi esandula kubhengezwa, amandla okuvelisa intsimbi entsha malunga neetoni zezigidi ezingama-30, apho amandla okuvelisa intsimbi yesithando sombane angaphezulu kwe-15 yezigidi zeetoni, ezibalelwa ngaphezu kwe-50%, oku kuthetha ukuba amashishini angaphezulu khetha inkqubo emfutshane yentsimbi.Ngokungathandabuzekiyo, ukwakhiwa kwenkqubo yokukhutshwa kwekhabhoni kulo lonke ilizwe kunye nokuqaliswa kwesicwangciso sesenzo se-2030 "i-carbon peak" siya kudala iimeko zamashishini esinyithi kunye nentsimbi ukwenza isinyithi esininzi, i-iron ore encinci.Ngo-2022, imfuno yentsimbi yentsimbi yentsimbi kulindeleke ukuba ibe buthathaka kwakhona, kwaye ukunyuka kwexabiso okubalulekileyo kwimarike yentsimbi akunakwenzeka.
Ngexesha eliphakathi kunye nexesha elide, "i-carbon peak" kunye "ne-carbon neutral" iya kuhlala iyimiba engalunganga yokulungelelaniswa kokukhutshwa kwamandla emboni yensimbi, eya kuba nefuthe elithe ngqo kwimfuno yentsimbi.Ngamafutshane, imarike yentsimbi ayizange ihambe, akukho mfutho wokuxhasa ixabiso layo lokunyuka kakhulu.
Iingcali zichaza ukuba kwixesha eliphakathi kunye nexesha elide, akukho tshintsho lubalulekileyo ekuboneleleni kwentsimbi kunye nokufunwa, amaxabiso e-iron ore nawo awakho ukunyuka okukhulu kwisiseko.Ixabiso lentsimbi yentsimbi kwi-80 USD / ton ~ 100 USD / uluhlu lwetoni, lufanelekile;Ngaphezulu kweedola ezili-100 ngetoni, iziseko kunye nemfuno ayixhaswanga;Ukuba iwela ngaphantsi kweedola ezingama-80 / iitoni, ezinye iimayini zexabiso eliphezulu zinokurhoxiswa kwiimarike, zenze imarike ilinganisele ngakumbi.
Nangona kunjalo, abanye abangaphakathi kwishishini bakholelwa ukuba ukubikezelwa kwendlela yentengiso yentsimbi ekuqaleni kuka-2022, kodwa kufuneka kuqwalaselwe ifuthe leoyile esulungekisiweyo, ioyile yamafutha, imarike yamalahle ashushu, utshintsho lwemarike yokuhambisa ngenqanawa kwixabiso lentengiso yentsimbi.Ngo-2021, i-oyile yehlabathi, igesi yendalo, i-oyile esulungekisiweyo, amalahle, umbane kunye nezinye izixhobo zamandla ziqinile, uluhlu lwempahla luphantsi, kwaye amaxabiso anyuka kakhulu, ngokunyuka komndilili wonyaka ngaphezulu kwe-30%.Amanye amaxabiso emveliso yamandla anyuka ngokuphindwe kabini okanye izihlandlo ezininzi, nto leyo ekhokelela ekunyukeni okukhulu kwazo zonke iindleko zothutho ukusuka elwandle ukuya emhlabeni.Umsantsa womthamo wezothutho uyanyuka, ubonelelo lwezothutho lwaseLwandle kunye nokuxinana kwemfuno, ukunyuka kwemithwalo.Ngokutsho kwedatha efanelekileyo, ngo-2021, ixabiso lehlabathi jikelele lempahla eyomileyo (BDI) liye lahamba lonke kwaye liye ladlula amanqaku angama-5600 ngo-Okthobha, ukuya kuthi ga kathathu ngaphezu kwamanqaku angama-1400 ekuqaleni kwe-2021 kunye nentsha ephezulu Iminyaka eyi-13.Iindleko zokuthumela zilindeleke ukuba zihlale ziphezulu okanye ziphakame kwi-2022. Ngo-Dec. 9, i-Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ivaliwe kwi-3,343, iphakamisa amanqaku angama-228, okanye i-7.3%, ukusuka kwixesha elifanayo.NgoDisemba 8, isalathisi sempahla yentsimbi yonxweme ivaliwe kwii-1377.82 points.Okwangoku, amaxabiso okuthumela ayaqhubeka nokubuyela umva, isalathiso se-BDI kulindeleke ukuba sothuke kwixesha elifutshane.
Abahlalutyi bemizi-mveliso bakholelwa ukuba ebutsheni buka-2022, “ukunqongophala kwamandla” akusayi kupheliswa ngokupheleleyo.Amaxabiso aphezulu enqanawa kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso amandla aphesheya kuya kuba nefuthe elithile kumaxabiso emarike yentsimbi.