Uhlumo lwase-China lokuthengisa kumazwe angaphandle kulindeleke ukuba lwehle kwikota yesibini yalo nyaka, ngokweNgxelo yoQoqosho lwezoQoqosho neZimali yaseTshayina ekhutshwe liZiko loPhando leBhanki yaseTshayina."Idityaniswe kunye, ukwehla kokuthumela ngaphandle kweTshayina kulindeleke ukuba kunciphe ukuya kuthi ga kwi-4 pesenti kwikota yesibini."“Itshilo ingxelo.
Ngokutsho kwengxelo, ukukhula kwe-China kumazwe angaphandle kuya kuhlala kubuthathaka ngo-2023 ngenxa yenguqu eqhubekayo yezopolitiko kunye noqoqosho lwamazwe ngamazwe, imfuno ecolekileyo phesheya, inkxaso yexabiso eliphantsi kunye nesiseko esiphezulu ngo-2022. NgoJanuwari noFebruwari ukusuka kunyaka ongaphambili.
Ukusuka kwimbono yamaqabane amakhulu orhwebo, umkhwa wokwahlula kurhwebo lwangaphandle lwaseTshayina lonyukile.Ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuFebruwari 2023, ukuthunyelwa kwe-China ukuya eUnited States kwaqhubeka nokukhula kakubi, phantsi kwe-21.8% ngonyaka, okuyi-2.3 yeepesenti enkulu kunoDisemba 2022. Ukuthunyelwa kwe-European Union kunye neJapan kwehle kancinci, kodwa izinga lokukhula. khange ijike inethemba, ngokulandelelanayo -12.2% kunye -1.3%.Ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwe-ASEAN kwanda ngokukhawuleza, isantya sepesenti ye-1.5 yeepesenti ngonyaka ukuya kwi-9% ukusuka ngoDisemba ka-2022.
Ngokwembono yolwakhiwo lwemveliso, ukuthunyelwa kwemveliso kumazwe angaphandle kwemveliso kunye neemoto kuphezulu, ngelixa ukuthunyelwa kwemveliso esebenza ngamandla kuyaqhubeka ukuwa.Ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuFebruwari 2023, ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwemveliso yeoli ecociweyo kunye neemveliso zetsimbi zanda nge-101.8% kunye ne-27.5%, ngokulandelanayo.Amazinga okukhula konyaka-onyaka kwiimoto kunye ne-chassis kunye neenxalenye zemoto zazingama-65.2% kunye ne-4%, ngokulandelanayo.Inani leemoto ezithunyelwa kumazwe angaphandle (iiyunithi ezingama-370,000) zafikelela kwirekhodi eliphezulu, lenyuka ngama-68.2 ekhulwini ngonyaka, linegalelo elimalunga nama-60.3 ekhulwini ekukhuleni kwexabiso leemoto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle.
Ngokutsho kwengxelo, ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwefenitshala, izinto zokudlala, iiplastiki, izihlangu kunye neemveliso zempahla ziyaqhubeka ziwa, njengoko uqoqosho oluphuhlileyo eYurophu naseUnited States lunemfuno ebuthathaka yabathengi bempahla ehlala ixesha elide, umjikelo wokuchithwa kwenkampani awukapheli, kwaye amazwe avelisayo anjalo. njengoko iVietnam, iMexico kunye neIndiya zithathe isabelo sokuthumela ngaphandle kweTshayina kumacandelo afuna abasebenzi kakhulu.Behle nge-17.2%, 10.1%, 9.7%, 11.6% kunye ne-14.7%, ababeyi-2.6, 0.7, 7, 13.8 kunye ne-4.4 yeepesenti ephezulu kunoDisemba ka-2022, ngokulandelanayo.
Kodwa ukukhula kwe-China kumazwe angaphandle kwakungcono kunokulindela imarike, kunye nokuhla kokunciphisa ngeepesenti ze-3.1 ekhulwini ukusuka ngoDisemba 2022. Ngokutsho kwengxelo, izizathu eziphambili zezi meko zingasentla zilandelayo:
Okokuqala, imfuno yamazwe ngamazwe ingcono kunokulindelekile.Ngoxa i-US ISM yokuvelisa i-PMI yahlala kwintsimi ye-contraction ngoFebruwari, inyuke ipesenti ye-0.3 ukusuka ngoJanuwari ukuya kwi-47.7 ipesenti, ukuphuculwa kokuqala kwiinyanga ezintandathu.Ukuzithemba kwabathengi kuye kwaphucuka eYurophu naseJapan.Ukusuka kwisalathiso sesantya somthwalo, ukusukela phakathi kuFebruwari, iBaltic dry bulk index (BDI), isalathiso sezinga lokuthumela isikhongozeli sonxweme (TDOI) saqala ukwehla phezulu.Okwesibini, ukuqaliswa kwakhona kweholide yomsebenzi kunye nokuveliswa kwemveliso e-China kwakhawuleziswa, iindawo zokuthintela kwikhonkco lezoshishino kunye nekhonkco lokubonelela zaye zacinywa, kwaye ukusilela kwee-odolo ngexesha lencopho yobhubhane kwakhululwa ngokupheleleyo, kunika ukomelela okuthile kokuthumela ngaphandle. ukukhula.Okwesithathu, iindlela ezintsha zorhwebo zangaphandle ziye zaba yeyona nto ibalulekileyo ekuqhubeni ukukhula kwemveliso kumazwe angaphandle.Isalathiso se-e-commerce esiwela umda kwikota yokuqala ye-2023 yayiphezulu kunexesha elifanayo le-2022, kwaye umthamo wezoshishino weZhejiang, Shandong, Shenzhen kunye neminye imimandla ehamba phambili ekuphuhliseni iifom ezintsha zorhwebo zangaphandle ngokubanzi zine ukukhula okuphezulu konyaka nonyaka.Phakathi kwabo, umthamo wokuthumela ngaphandle kwe-e-commerce e-cross-border e-Zhejiang ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuFebruwari unyuke nge-73.2% ngonyaka.
Le ngxelo ikholelwa ukuba ukukhula kwe-China kumazwe angaphandle kulindeleke ukuba kwehle kwikota yesibini, amathuba okwakhiwa afanele ukunikwa ingqalelo.Ukusuka kwinto yokutsala, ukulungiswa kweemfuno zangaphandle kunokungaqiniseki.Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ehlabathi jikelele kuhlala kuphezulu kwaye kukho amathuba aphezulu okuba uqoqosho oluqhubela phambili eYurophu naseUnited States luya kuphakamisa inzala “kumanyathelo omntwana” kwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2023, kunciphisa imfuno yamazwe ngamazwe.Umjikelo wokuchithwa kwempahla kumazwe amakhulu aphuhlileyo awukapheli, kwaye umlinganiselo wokuthengiswa kwezinto ezininzi e-United States usekuluhlu oluphezulu olungaphezulu kwe-1.5, ebonisa ukuba akukho phuculo olubonakalayo xa kuthelekiswa nokuphela kwe-2022. ixesha lika-2022, isiseko sorhwebo lwangaphandle yaseTshayina yayiphezulu kakhulu, kunye nezinga lokukhula konyaka-ngonyaka we-16.3% ngoMeyi kunye ne-17,1% ngoJuni.Ngenxa yoko, ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kumazwe angaphandle kwenyuka ngeepesenti ezili-12.4 kwikota yesibini.